Satellite and forecast figures refreshed 16 August 2026 at 10:23 UK time. Fire and disruption reporting verified against official sources the same day. Conditions change hourly during fires. National authorities are always right. In danger anywhere in the EU, call 112.
France · week by week
Is your travel window risky? The next four weeks
One question, answered by week: where the pressure is, and where the better bets are. Confidence drops as you go right — week 1 is real forecast; weeks 3–4 are tendencies plus what late August and early September reliably do. Use them to shape options, not to book by.
Week 1
11 – 17 Augsolid forecast
Watch out
Landes — a fire is burning right now at Luglon, north-west of Mont-de-Marsan. It started on Thursday 13 August and had run to 1,100 hectares by Friday morning, with 500 firefighters on it. The 525 residents of Luglon and Garein were taken out on Thursday evening to Sabres, Bigos and Arengosse. The RD 327 and the RD 14 are closed to all traffic north and south of Luglon. No homes have been lost and the fire slowed overnight on cooler, damper air, but the Sdis 40 commander has said openly that he expects it to test the lines again once the afternoon reaches 36 °C. If your route crosses the Haute Lande this week, plan around it rather than through it. Verified on 14 August.
Gironde is still on red forest-fire vigilance, and red has teeth. The département went back to red at midday on Saturday 8 August under the préfet's order of 7 August, and it is still red today with no end date published. Under it, being in exposed forest at all is banned between 2pm and 10pm — that includes walking, cycling and leisure sites, not just lighting things. Fire, smoking, camping and bivouac are banned inside forest and within 200 m of it around the clock, and the ground that burned in July stays shut to everyone but authorised crews. A forest pitch or a dune park-up in Gironde is not a legal option this week. Verified on 14 August with gironde.gouv.fr and the DFCI Aquitaine restrictions map.
Landes and Lot-et-Garonne are orange, which also closes the forest in the afternoons. Both sit at 3/5, and orange bans free public presence in the woods between 2pm and 10pm too. Lot-et-Garonne's order runs to 17 August. Same 200 m no-camping rule. Verified on 14 August.
The heat peaked on Thursday and is only slowly letting go. Météo-France has kept 75 départements on orange canicule for Friday 14 and Saturday 15 August, with 17 more on yellow. Friday brings around 39 °C to Avignon and 38 °C to Paris, Lille, Limoges, Toulouse and Nantes; Saturday shifts the worst of it east, to about 38 °C in Lyon and Strasbourg. Drive early, and do not leave anyone or any animal in a parked vehicle.
Saturday 15 August is the worst road day of the month. Bison Futé has it red nationally in both directions — departures and returns colliding — and black in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Monday 17 August is orange nationally on the return and red on the Mediterranean arc. Friday 14 and Sunday 16 are green nationally with orange across the south-east. If you can sit still on the Saturday, sit still.
The sharpest fire danger this week is in the west, not the Med. Météo-France's forest danger rating puts Indre, Indre-et-Loire, Mayenne and Deux-Sèvres at "very high" for Friday 14 August, the top rung, with 57 more départements at "high". The Loire country and the western interior are where the fuel is driest right now, so the usual mental map of "fire happens in the south" does not hold this week.
The break, when it comes, comes as storms. Sunday 16 and Monday 17 carry high rain probabilities over the east and the Massif Central — around 80% at Strasbourg on the Sunday, near 75% at Clermont-Ferrand across the weekend. That is heat breaking, not weather improving. Never overnight in a dry riverbed.
Med massifs shut on wind days — mistral and tramontane days close forest massifs in Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, Aude and Pyrénées-Orientales to all visitors, and spike the chance of a new start. Check the day's massif access map before you set off, not after.
Better bets
The Channel coast and the far north from Sunday 16 onward — Lille drops from 38 °C on Friday to the mid-20s by Sunday, and stays there.
Alps and Pyrénées above roughly 1,000 m, for nights you can actually sleep through. Watch afternoon storms.
Coastal and serviced pitches over forest-edge pitches everywhere. In Gironde, the Landes and Lot-et-Garonne this is not a preference, it is the law.
Week 2
18 – 24 Augtrend
Watch out
A second hot spell first, roughly Tuesday 18 to Thursday 20. The 16-day run puts Avignon back near 39 °C around the 19th, with the mid-30s in Montpellier, Perpignan, Bordeaux and Toulouse. It is a real forecast at this range but not a locked one — treat the shape as reliable and the numbers as approximate.
Then a genuine breakdown from about Friday 21. The same run drops most of France into the low-to-mid 20s for 21–24 August, with rain probabilities climbing through the 30s and 40s inland. If it verifies, this is the end of the heatwave sequence rather than another pause in it.
Saturday 22 August is the end-of-summer return peak. Bison Futé has it orange nationally and red in the North, the Grand-Ouest and the South-West on the return leg. Different pressure from the 15th — this one is people going home, so the pain is northbound.
Fire risk stays serious through the hot first half of the week. The south-west ground has not recovered from July, when roughly 42,000 hectares burned in Gironde and 3,500 more around Biscarrosse and Parentis in the Landes. Dry ground plus a hot Wednesday is how the Luglon fire started.
Hold flexible bookings in inland Provence and the Gironde–Landes pine belt. These are the two zones that have actually evacuated people this season. Refundable is worth the few euros here.
Better bets
The back half of the week, if the cool-down verifies — that is the first properly comfortable travelling window the models offer.
Coastal over forest-edge, still, and still south of Valence in particular.
Week 3
25 – 31 Augtendency only
Watch out
The only thing that reaches this far is the 45-day model, and it leans cool. Its run has Marseille and Montpellier in the low-to-mid 20s around 25–28 August and Paris nearer 18–20 °C, which would be below what late August normally does. That is one tendency run, not a forecast and not a probability — read it as "a cooler last week of August is on the table", nothing firmer.
The same run warms back up over 29–31 August, returning Marseille and Montpellier towards 30 °C by the very end of the month. Tendency again. If you are choosing between the two halves of this week, the earlier half is the cooler bet.
Cooler would ease the fire threat, not end it. The Mediterranean fire season runs until the autumn rain arrives, and a single hot windy day inside a cool week is enough. Assume massif closures are still possible from Perpignan to Nice.
Friday 28 August is red on the return in Bison Futé's published calendar — the last big homeward push of the season.
Mountain storms. Whatever the temperature does, late August afternoons over the Massif Central, Alps and Pyrénées build thunderstorms. Dry riverbeds and low-lying pitches near streams are the thing to avoid.
Better bets
The coast after the 22nd, once the return traffic has cleared — the crowds thin sharply and the pitches open up.
Week 4
1 – 7 Septendency only
Watch out
French schools go back on Tuesday 1 September (teachers the Monday, Corsica aside). This is calendar fact, not forecast, and it is the single biggest thing about this week: crowds and prices fall away, but so does supply. Seasonal campsites, beach services and some aires start shutting from the first week of September, so confirm your site is actually still open rather than assuming.
Fire season is not over on 1 September. The Mediterranean arc stays at risk until real autumn rain, which is usually later in the month at the earliest. Massif closures, forest bans and smoke days remain live possibilities from Perpignan to Nice.
The long-range signal is warm but ordinary. The 45-day run puts the southern cities in the high 20s through 1–7 September — Montpellier, Toulouse, Bordeaux and Marseille around 26–30 °C — and the north in the low-to-mid 20s. That is a normal-looking early September rather than another heat event, but it is tendency only and nothing at this range should be booked around.
Better bets
The whole Mediterranean coast, if you can live with some closures — early September is the best value week of the season for warm sea and empty beaches.
Re-check this page around 25 August, when real forecasts start reaching into September and these tendencies get replaced by facts.
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