No forecast gives you real day-by-day weather a month out — anyone who says otherwise is selling something. What exists is a ladder: precise for about ten days, directional to sixteen, and beyond that only tendencies against what late August normally does. This page stacks all four rungs so you can plan a route with eyes open.
Issued 27 July 2026 · covers 28 July – 7 September · a snapshot, not a live feed
The official long view: Météo-France's seasonal bulletin gives July–September a 70% probability of running warmer than normal across the whole country, with the north likely drier than usual (moderate confidence, no clear rain signal in the south).
Average daily maximum for each week, by city. The first two columns are genuine forecast; from mid-August onwards the numbers come from a long-range model (CFS) and should be read as "roughly this warm", ±3 °C. An ▲ marks a week running at least 1.5 °C above the late-summer normal for that city.
| City | 29 Jul–4 Augforecast | 5–11 Augfcst → trend | 12–18 Augtrend | 19–25 Augtendency | 26 Aug–1 Septendency | 2–8 Septendency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North & West | ||||||
| Lille | 30°▲ | 27°▲ | 32°▲ | 23° | 21° | 18° |
| Paris | 33°▲ | 30°▲ | 35°▲ | 25° | 24° | 20° |
| Strasbourg | 34°▲ | 30°▲ | 30°▲ | 26° | 26° | 21° |
| Nantes | 31°▲ | 29°▲ | 33°▲ | 23° | 22° | 20° |
| Centre & East | ||||||
| Limoges | 33°▲ | 31°▲ | 36°▲ | 26° | 25° | 22° |
| Clermont-Ferrand | 33°▲ | 30°▲ | 35°▲ | 28°▲ | 26° | 22° |
| Lyon | 36°▲ | 32°▲ | 37°▲ | 29°▲ | 29° | 25° |
| South-West | ||||||
| Bordeaux | 33°▲ | 31°▲ | 36°▲ | 28° | 28° | 25° |
| Toulouse | 35°▲ | 33°▲ | 36°▲ | 30° | 29° | 25° |
| Mediterranean arc | ||||||
| Perpignan | 31°▲ | 34°▲ | 33°▲ | 30° | 28° | 25° |
| Montpellier | 31°▲ | 36°▲ | 33°▲ | 33°▲ | 30° | 28° |
| Avignon | 35°▲ | 35°▲ | 36°▲ | 33°▲ | 32°▲ | 29° |
| Marseille | 30°▲ | 32°▲ | 35°▲ | 33°▲ | 32°▲ | 29° |
| Nice | 32°▲ | 32°▲ | 27° | 25° | 26° | 24° |
Ten years of observed weather (2015–2024), 10 August to 5 September. This is the most trustworthy guide for anything more than three weeks out — and the spread between regions is the real story for route planning.
| City | Typical daily max | Days over 30 °C | Days over 35 °C | Days with rain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 0% | |||
| Paris | 1% | |||
| Strasbourg | 0% | |||
| Nantes | 0% | |||
| Limoges | 1% | |||
| Clermont-Ferrand | 1% | |||
| Lyon | 4% | |||
| Bordeaux | 5% | |||
| Toulouse | 6% | |||
| Perpignan | 2% | |||
| Montpellier | 3% | |||
| Avignon | 7% | |||
| Marseille | 0% | |||
| Nice | 0% |
The Rhône valley (Avignon: over half of late-August days top 30 °C) and the south-west interior are the ovens. Coasts — Atlantic, Channel and even the Med — run several degrees cooler with usable nights.
In the Mediterranean départements, forest massifs are routinely closed to vehicles and camping on high-risk days, and wild camping bans are enforced. Check each département's daily massif-access map before parking up.
Mistral and tramontane days in the Rhône delta and Languedoc bring 60–90 km/h gusts — miserable for awnings and high-sided vans. They also spike the fire risk.
Late-August heat in the interior usually breaks with sharp thunderstorms, especially over the Massif Central, Alps and Pyrénées. Avoid dry riverbeds and check overnight spots for run-off.
Brittany, Normandy and the Channel coast typically hold 23–25 °C maximums with more rain days — the reliable option if the seasonal "warmer than normal" signal verifies.
Around 10 August the real forecast window starts covering a late-August arrival. That's the moment to firm up the route — everything longer-range on this page is for shaping options, not fixing them.